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Grupo Wagner: en qué países opera y qué puede ocurrir con sus actividades fuera de Rusia tras las rebelión

Wagner Group: in which countries it operates and what can happen to its activities outside Russia after the rebellion

Por BBC News Mundo – En 2019, la agencia Reuters aseguró que mercenarios de Wagner volaron a Caracas para reforzar la seguridad del presidente Nicolás Maduro ante las manifestaciones antigubernamentales previstas a principios de ese año

Ucrania, Mali, Sudán, Siria, República Centroafricana, Libia… los tentáculos del Grupo Wagner se extienden mucho más allá de las fronteras rusas, donde las consecuencias de su levantamiento contra el Kremlin son difíciles de predecir.

El Grupo Wagner había sido, hasta ahora, muy útil para los intereses de Moscú.

La compañía de mercenarios liderada por Yevgeny Prigozhin ha ejercido como una suerte de ejército ruso en la sombra, haciendo gran parte del trabajo sucio allá donde el Kremlin tenía intereses, pero no quería mandar a sus propios soldados para evitar posibles repercusiones legales o diplomáticas.

A cambio, Wagner, un entramado de empresas que va más allá del ejército privado, ha obtenido influencia política y una puerta de entrada a la explotación de los ricos recursos naturales de muchos de estos países, lo que le permite autofinanciarse.

Sin embargo, tras el levantamiento frustrado, su futuro está en el aire.

En Ucrania, donde ha tenido un papel muy destacado desde la toma de Crimea en 2014 hasta la captura de Bajmut el mes pasado, Moscú ha abierto las puertas a que los miles de mercenarios de Wagner que combaten en el frente se unan a las filas del ejército regular, algo que debería materializarse antes del 1 de julio.

Pero, ¿qué podría ocurrir con las tropas de Wagner más lejos de Rusia?

“En muchos de esos países, el Grupo Wagner trabaja de forma semiautónoma y solo está allí por el dinero. Y el Ejército ruso no tiene ni la intención ni los recursos para involucrarse en esos conflictos o intentar frenar a Wagner allí”, analiza para BBC Mundo el profesor Rasmus Nilsson, de la Escuela de estudios eslavos y de Europa del este del University College de Londres (UCL).

En su opinión, sus servicios van a seguir teniendo demanda en los países donde ya opera, y donde es posible que “Wagner acabe dividiéndose en distintos grupos, según quién les pague”.

Dónde están presentes

La guerra civil en Siria fue una de los primeras incursiones del Grupo Wagner fuera de Europa.

El presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, salió en ayuda de Bashar al Assad en 2015, después de que el Ejército sirio se viera desbordado por los combates contra la oposición -convertida en insurgencia- y contra las fuerzas yihadistas del Estado Islámico. Un mes después, a los soldados del Ejército ruso se unieron los mercenarios de Prigozhin, que llegaron a sumar más de 5.000 hombres.

Siria es también uno de los pocos lugares donde tropas occidentales se han enfrentado a los mercenarios de Wagner.

En 2018, el Ejército de Al Assad, apoyado por mercenarios rusos, atacó un puesto militar estadounidense desde el que combatían a las fuerzas del Estado Islámico. EE UU respondió con una ofensiva en la que se cree que murieron entre 200 y 300 combatientes, entre ellos muchos miembros de Wagner.

El conflicto sirio se encuentra actualmente congelado, y se cree que muchos de los mercenarios abandonaron la región para unirse a los combates en Ucrania, aunque compañías vinculadas a Wagner han obtenido lucrativos contratos en las zonas que en su momento controló el Estado Islámico.

Menos documentada está su posible presencia en Venezuela.

En 2019, la agencia Reuters aseguró que mercenarios de Wagner volaron a Caracas para reforzar la seguridad del presidente Nicolás Maduro ante las manifestaciones antigubernamentales previstas a principios de ese año.

El Grupo Wagner también ha sido acusado de estar vinculado a la minería ilegal en Venezuela, una cuestión que llegó incluso al Parlamento británico en 2022. Ante la pregunta de un legislador, el gobierno de Reino Unido aseguró que estaba siguiendo de cerca las informaciones sobre la presencia de mercenarios rusos en el país latinoamericano y sobre las actividades de “empresas privadas militares rusas” en la región del Arco Minero, donde se lleva a cabo minería ilegal de oro.

Sin embargo, ante la rebelión de Wagner el pasado sábado, el gobierno de Maduro salió rápido a condenar la “amenaza terrorista” del grupo mercenario y su “respaldo absoluto” al presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin.

Wagner Group: in which countries it operates and what can happen to its activities outside Russia after the rebellion

By BBC News World — In 2019, Reuters assured that Wagner’s mercenaries flew to Caracas to strengthen the security of President Nicolás Maduro in the face of the anti-government demonstrations planned at the beginning of that year

Ukraine, Mali, Sudan, Syria, Central African Republic, Libya… the tentacles of the Wagner Group extend far beyond the Russian borders, where the consequences of its uprising against the Kremlin are difficult to predict.

The Wagner Group had been, until now, very useful for Moscow’s interests.

The mercenary company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has acted as a kind of Russian army in the shadows, doing much of the dirty work where the Kremlin had interests, but it did not want to send its own soldiers to avoid possible legal or diplomatic repercussions.

In return, Wagner, a network of companies that goes beyond the private army, has obtained political influence and a gateway to the exploitation of the rich natural resources of many of these countries, which allows him to self-finance.

However, after the frustrated uprising, his future is in the air.

In Ukraine, where it has played a very prominent role from the capture of Crimea in 2014 to the capture of Bajmut last month, Moscow has opened the doors for the thousands of Wagner mercenaries fighting at the front to join the ranks of the regular army, something that should materialize before July 1.

But what could happen to Wagner’s troops farther from Russia?

“In many of those countries, the Wagner Group works semi-autonomously and is only there for the money. And the Russian Army has neither the intention nor the resources to get involved in those conflicts or try to stop Wagner there,” Professor Rasmus Nilsson, of the School of Slavic and Eastern European Studies of University College London (UCL), analyzes for BBC Mundo.

In his opinion, his services will continue to be in demand in the countries where he already operates, and where it is possible that “Wagner will end up dividing into different groups, depending on who pays them.”

Where are they present?

The civil war in Syria was one of the first incursions of the Wagner Group outside Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin came to the aid of Bashar al-Assad in 2015, after the Syrian Army was overwhelmed by the fighting against the opposition – turned into an insurgency – and against the jihadist forces of the Islamic State. A month later, the soldiers of the Russian Army were joined by the mercenaries of Prigozhin, who managed to add more than 5,000 men.

Syria is also one of the few places where Western troops have confronted Wagner’s mercenaries.

In 2018, the Al Assad Army, supported by Russian mercenaries, attacked a U.S. military post from which they were fighting the forces of the Islamic State. The United States responded with an offensive in which it is believed that between 200 and 300 fighters died, including many members of Wagner.

The Syrian conflict is currently frozen, and it is believed that many of the mercenaries left the region to join the fighting in Ukraine, although companies linked to Wagner have obtained lucrative contracts in the areas that the Islamic State controlled at the time.

Less documented is its possible presence in Venezuela.

In 2019, the Reuters agency assured that Wagner’s mercenaries flew to Caracas to strengthen the security of President Nicolás Maduro in the face of the anti-government demonstrations planned at the beginning of that year.

The Wagner Group has also been accused of being linked to illegal mining in Venezuela, an issue that even reached the British Parliament in 2022. When asked by a legislator, the United Kingdom government assured that it was closely following the information about the presence of Russian mercenaries in the Latin American country and about the activities of “Russian private military companies” in the Mining Arc region, where illegal gold mining is carried out.

However, in the face of Wagner’s rebellion last Saturday, Maduro’s government came out quickly to condemn the “terrorist threat” of the mercenary group and its “absolute support” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Great presence in Africa

The group of mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has an important presence in Africa, where they offer security services, political consulting or disinformation campaigns.

From Libya, in the north, to South Africa, in the south, Wagner’s activities have been increasing in recent years, nourishing from political instability and even, on some occasions, promoting it themselves, according to experts in the region.

In Libya, Wagner’s mercenaries made their public appearance for the first time in 2019, where they supported rebel general Khalifa Haftar in his assault on the Tripoli government, which had the support of the UN. It is believed, however, that the group had been in the country since 2014, when Libya de facto split in two, with opposing governments in the east and west of the country.

Prigozhin had about 2,000 troops in Libya, although it is unknown how many soldiers are still there.

In Sudan, also the scene of the fierce fighting between two rival generals, Wagner has about 500 men, according to local media such as The Sudan Tribune. Russian mercenaries entered from the hand of then-President Omar al-Bashir, who signed a series of agreements with Moscow in 2017.

Among them was the construction of a naval base in Port Sudan, in the Red Sea, as well as concessions for the exploitation of gold mines with the company M Invest which, according to the United States, is a screen company of the Wagner Group.

Since then, although Sudan has not recognized the presence of mercenaries in the country, various images published on Telegram channels linked to the group – which could not be verified by the BBC – have shown Wagner troops training Sudanese soldiers or helping security forces to dissolve demonstrations.

In Mali, the troops of the Wagner Group have been operating for more than a year and, although the country’s authorities have not officially confirmed it, the Malian Foreign Minister, Abdulaye Diop, has made it clear that they have no need to justify themselves: “Russia is here at the request of Mali and responds effectively to our strategic needs,” he said last year.

France, the former colonial power, had until very recently been Mali’s strategic partner, which included the deployment of thousands of Gallic soldiers to help Malian troops fight the Islamist insurgency that had taken control of the north of the country.

But this cooperation did not bear fruit, the animosity towards France grew in the country and Paris was forced to withdraw its troops in 2022, which have been replaced by Wagner’s mercenaries.

This scenario has been repeated in Burkina Faso, where the government denies that Prigozhin’s men are operating in the country. According to Ouagadougou, cooperation with Moscow is limited to the training of soldiers in the handling of weapons purchased from Russia.

However, US intelligence assumed at the beginning of this year that Prigozhin’s group was in negotiations with the Burkinabe government to deploy its troops and that they had carried out information operations.

Wagner’s soldiers could also be spreading to Chad, according to various African, European and American sources. Chad occupies a strategic position in the center of the Sahel, with relatively open borders with the Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan, where its mercenaries are active.

Wagner would have provided material and operational support to the local rebels who are seeking to destabilize and possibly overthrow the interim government presided over by Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno.

They are also very present in the Central African Republic, where France withdrew its troops in 2017 after years of intervention that failed to help Bangui make significant progress in terms of stability, security and economic development.

The Wagner Group has since taken its place, where it has helped consolidate the Faustin-Archange Touadéra government and stop the advance of the rebel groups that started a civil war in 2013.

Prigozhin’s group “is Russia’s most important representative in the Central African Republic, provides security to the government, facilitates Russian political and diplomatic influence and has gained access to lucrative mining resources,” Paul Stronski, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Fund for International Peace, explains to BBC Mundo.

In Eritrea, Wagner would be in negotiations with the government to provide training and equipment, and in Zimbabwe to offer his support in information operations, according to US intelligence material to which the Washington Post had access.

The fate of Prigozhin

The large number of services offered by the Wagner Group in these countries will continue to be in demand.

His activity has often been accompanied by serious human rights complaints, and a recent United Nations report warned about the possible war crimes committed by its mercenaries in Mali. But, as Paul Stronski points out, this has not been a big problem for many of the countries that have hired Wagner.

After the mutiny, the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, negotiated an agreement between Progozhin and the Kremlin to allow Wagner’s leader to go into exile in Belarus.

“Lukashenko is going to have a great interest in keeping him safe to keep that record with the Russians. But, on the other hand, Moscow will not want to depend on Belarus, so that is a clear reason to end Prigozhin,” analyzes Rasmus Nilsson.

The big question now, says the UCL professor, is what Yevgeny Prigozhin is going to do: “Are you going to remain silent in Belarus or, as some have suggested, are you going to go to Africa to become a warlord there?”

According to this analyst, the possibility that the mercenary leader heads south makes sense, since “he could surround himself with a faithful group and where he will continue to have many people interested in working with him.”

As for his soldiers, Nilsson believes that some of them deployed in Ukraine and Russia will end up joining the Russian army, but many will not trust either their intentions or their abilities.

Salaries, much more

Wagner Group

low than Wagner’s, they can also play against him.

“They will have to decide to go to one of Wagner’s branches in Africa, for example, or to another group. There are a multitude of organizations in the world that are looking for mercenaries,” concludes the UCL professor.