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La creación de empleo en EE.UU. se desploma en octubre a cuatro días de las elecciones / US labor market staggers after blow from hurricanes, strikes

Washington (EFE).- La creación de empleo en Estados Unidos se desplomó en octubre hasta los 12.000 puestos de trabajo netos creados, 211.000 menos que el mes pasado, un varapalo que el Gobierno estadounidense achaca a los huracanes y a las huelgas y que llega cuatro días antes de las elecciones presidenciales.

La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales (BLS, en inglés) informó que, sin embargo, la tasa de desempleo se mantuvo en el 4,1 %, una cifra todavía muy baja según los economistas.

La BLS señaló que los datos de octubre son los primeros que se recopilan desde que los huracanes Helene y Milton azotaron Estados Unidos, fenómenos que “causaron graves daños en la parte sureste del país”. Aún así, todavía no se pudo cuantificar su efecto neto en el empleo.

Además, explicó, el empleo disminuyó en la industria manufacturera debido “a la actividad huelguística”. Cayó en 46.000 puestos, con una caída de 44.000 puestos en la fabricación de equipos de transporte, que se debió en gran medida a la huelga de Boeing.

Así justificó los malos datos el presidente estadounidense, Joe Biden, quien aseguró que “se espera que el crecimiento del empleo se recupere en noviembre a medida que continúan los esfuerzos de recuperación y reconstrucción tras el huracán”.

“Además, quiero felicitar a los líderes de los maquinistas y de Boeing por negociar una nueva propuesta de contrato que será votada por los miembros del sindicato. Los maquinistas de Boeing se han sacrificado a lo largo de los años y merecen un contrato sólido”, afirmó el mandatario en un comunicado.

El empleo, una asunto que permea las elecciones en EE.UU.

La fortaleza del mercado laboral ha sido uno de los logros que más ha destacado Biden sobre sus casi cuatro años de gobierno en los que, asegura, ha creado 16 millones de empleos.

Durante el último año, se ha creado un promedio mensual de 180.000 empleos, más que el año anterior a la pandemia. “Tenemos la tasa de desempleo promedio más baja de cualquier administración en 50 años”, aseguró.

Quien también reaccionó a los datos fue la campaña del expresidente Donald Trump, que en un comunicado afirmó que este informe “es una catástrofe y revela definitivamente hasta qué punto Kamala Harris arruinó la economía”.

“En un solo mes, la fallida agenda económica de Kamala eliminó casi 30.000 empleos del sector privado y casi 50.000 empleos en el sector manufacturero. La agenda económica de Harris y Biden está estafando a las familias trabajadoras. Kamala arruinó la economía”, afirma el comunicado culpando directamente a Harris, pese a que el presidente es Biden.

Los datos se conocen cuando faltan solo cuatro días para las elecciones presidenciales del 5 de noviembre, que enfrentarán a la demócrata y vicepresidenta, Kamala Harris, con el republicano Donald Trump, y a las que llegan completamente igualados.

La economía, dicen los expertos, será uno de los principales motivos para definir el voto y por ello cada dato económico que se conoce es crucial.

El desglose de los datos

Los 12.000 puestos de trabajo creados en octubre están muy por debajo del promedio mensual de 194.000 puestos creados durante los 12 meses anteriores, señala la BLS. Es el crecimiento laboral más bajo desde diciembre de 2020, cuando se perdieron 243.000 puestos de trabajo.

El número de personas desempleadas se mantuvo prácticamente sin cambios, en siete millones. Estas cifras son más altas que las de un año antes, cuando la tasa de desempleo era del 3,8 % y el número de personas desempleadas era de 6,4 millones.

En octubre, el empleo siguió aumentando en los sectores de la salud y el gobierno. Los servicios de ayuda temporal perdieron puestos de trabajo y el empleo disminuyó en el sector manufacturero.

Las ganancias medias por hora aumentaron 13 centavos, o el 0,4 %, a 35,46 dólares. En los últimos 12 meses, las ganancias medias por hora han aumentado un 4 %.

Los datos se conocen además cuando la Reserva Federal (Fed) ha iniciado su ciclo de bajadas de tipos de interés, que hoy se sitúan en un rango del 4,75 % al 5 %. Todo ello después de que la inflación se haya reducido (al 2,4 % en septiembre, último dato conocido).

La primera bajada de tipos se produjo a mediados de septiembre y la semana que viene, los días 6 y 7 de noviembre, los miembros del comité que decide sobre tipos de interés se reunirán para estimar si es apropiado bajarlos más. Según los pronósticos, es probable que bajen 25 puntos básicos.

By Lucia Mutikani / WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. job growth almost stalled in October as strikes in the aerospace industry depressed manufacturing employment while hurricanes shortened the collection period for payrolls, making it hard to get a clear picture of the labor market ahead of next week’s presidential election.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday was the last major economic data before Americans head to the polls to choose Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country’s next president. Polls show the race is a toss-up.

Nonetheless, the labor market is cooling, with employment gains for August and September revised down by 112,000 jobs. While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in October, that was because more people left the labor force. Economists expected Federal Reserve officials would brush aside the report and deliver another interest rate cut when they meet next week.

“This is not the clarifying report on the economy that Americans and markets needed before next week’s election to answer whether voters are better off than they were four years ago,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“The one thing we can rule out is that the dramatic slowdown in nonfarm payroll jobs does not indicate the economy is at a tipping point and in danger of falling over the cliff and into recession.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The economy added 112,000 fewer jobs in August and September than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would rise 113,000.

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Hurricane Helene devastated the U.S. Southeast in late September and Hurricane Milton lashed Florida a week later.

The response rate for the establishment survey in October, from which payrolls are calculated, dropped to 47.4%. That was the lowest reading since January 1991 and was considerably below the 69.2% average for October in the past five years.

The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived found that 512,000 people reported they could not work in October, a record high for the month. About 1.4 million people who normally hold full-time positions said they could only work part-time because of the weather. That was also an all-time high for October and compared to only 129,000 last year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledged that payroll employment estimates in some industries were likely affected by the hurricanes, but said it was “not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events.”

It said the collection period for the responses, which can range from 10 to 16 days, only lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month.

There was a concentration of job losses in industries, which tend to employ hourly workers, a group that tends to be most affected by business closures due to weather disruptions.

The strikes by machinists at Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Textron (NYSE:TXT), an aircraft company, subtracted 44,000 jobs from transportation equipment manufacturing payrolls. Workers who do not receive a paycheck during the survey period are counted as unemployed in the establishments survey. Some economists estimated the storms, strikes and shorter collection period had subtracted roughly 115,000 jobs from payrolls.

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“The hurricanes clearly had a far greater impact on employment last month than most economists had anticipated,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander (BME:SAN) U.S. Capital Markets. “Much of that should reverse in November.”
First-time applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a five-month low in late October after surging in the aftermath of the hurricanes.

MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS SINK

Nearly all the jobs added last month were in the healthcare and government sectors. Healthcare employment increased by 52,000 jobs, spread across ambulatory and nursing care facilities. Government payrolls increased by 40,000, boosted by state and local government hiring.

Manufacturing employment declined by 46,000 positions, also reflecting a loss of 6,000 jobs in the automobile industry, a drop that was probably linked to layoffs at Chrysler-parent Stellantis (NYSE:STLA). Separately, Boeing has raised its wage offer to its striking workers, who will vote next week on the new package.
Professional and business services payrolls dropped by 47,000 jobs, with temporary help services employment declining by 49,000 positions. Leisure and hospitality payrolls fell by 4,000, while retail employment dropped by 6,400 positions.

The share of industries reporting an increase in payrolls fell to 55.6% from 59.8% in September.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.3% in September. They were likely lifted by hourly paid workers dropping out of the payrolls calculation.

Wages increased 4.0% in the 12 months through October after advancing 3.9% in September. Strong wage growth is underpinning consumer spending and the overall economy.

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Stocks on Wall Street traded higher. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.

‘JUSTIFICATION TO CUT RATES’

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed next Thursday. A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in July from 3.8% in March was one of the catalysts for the U.S. central bank’s unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut in September, the first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020.

The Fed’s policy rate is now set in the 4.75%-5.00% range, having been hiked by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023.

The household survey, whose response rates the Bureau of Labor Statistics said were within normal ranges, showed 220,000 people left the labor force in October, offsetting a drop of 368,000 in employment.
Permanent layoffs rose by the most since November 2021, but fewer people experienced longer bouts of unemployment or worked part-time for economic reasons.

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, was unchanged at 7.7%. The employment-to-population ratio, viewed as a measure of an economy’s ability to create employment, dropped to 60.0% from 60.2% in September.

“The labor market continues to gradually cool, providing the Fed with justification to cut rates again at next week’s meeting and in December,” said Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American.